Blog - Cook Political Report Moves PA-01 to Lean Republican

The Cook Political Report moved Pennsylvania's 1st Congressional District from Likely Republican to Lean Republican on Friday, part of a sweep of 18 House races it shifted toward Democrats in a single update.

"In the final weeks of the election, Republicans have hoped that a massive ad campaign effort could dent Democratic candidates' images and shore up Republicans struggling to free themselves of the anchor of President Donald Trump," Cook's Erin Covey wrote. "With less than four weeks to go, that heavy spending has yet to move the needle."

PA-01 takes in all of Bucks County and part of Montgomery County. Five-term incumbent Brian Fitzpatrick, a former FBI agent, faces Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie, a former public school teacher. The move puts the race one rung from Toss Up on Cook's seven-point scale. Cook still gives Fitzpatrick the edge, and the district remains one of the few competitive House seats in Pennsylvania.

The update landed a day before House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Gov. Josh Shapiro rallied for Harvie in Lower Bucks County on Saturday.

Cook moved two other Pennsylvania races in the same update: PA-07 (Ryan Mackenzie vs. Bob Brooks) and PA-10 (Scott Perry vs. Janelle Stelson) went from Toss Up to Lean Democrat. PA-08 (Rob Bresnahan vs. Paige Cognetti) stayed a Toss Up. Nationally, Cook now puts its most likely House outcome at a Democratic gain of 9 to 19 seats.

Sources: The Cook Political Report (the memo is subscriber-only past the lede; the PA-01 rating line is carried by PoliticsPA and PennLive), and the PoliticsPA Playbook. The rally is on the C-SPAN record.