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Bob Harvie and Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick are tied at 46 percent each in Pennsylvania's 1st Congressional District, according to polling the Harvie campaign ran in the first week of October. POLITICO reported the number first, on Oct. 11, from a memo Global Strategy Group sent to interested parties.

GSG is the Harvie campaign's pollster. The firm also works for Gov. Josh Shapiro, for House Majority PAC and for the DCCC, and its memo is dated Oct. 10, three weeks before Election Day. This is an internal Democratic poll, not an independent public survey, and the campaign released it because it likes the number, because that's how these things tend to work. That does not make the numbers wrong but it does mean the tie is one side's measure and we've seen polls now from both camps with differing conclusions.

The survey: 1,032 likely voters, in the field Oct. 1 through Oct. 8, a margin of error of 3.1 points, and 8 percent undecided.

The headline is that GSG's own numbers have moved. Fitzpatrick led 48 to 42 in the spring, then 47 to 43 in August and now the two are even. The memo credits two things: Democrats consolidating around Harvie, at 83 percent, and Republican defections that match it, with 10 percent of Republicans crossing over with Independents going from a 48 to 36 Fitzpatrick lead in August to 42 to 42.

"Bucks and Montgomery County voters are seeing that a decade in Washington has changed Brian Fitzpatrick, and they are ready to change who they send to Washington," campaign manager Dan McCormick said. "This race is breaking our way at the perfect time because voters know that a vote for Bob is a vote for a Democratic House majority, while a vote for Fitzpatrick is a vote to maintain the status quo that is crushing working families."

The other side has its own poll of course. Fitzpatrick's campaign and the NRCC fielded a survey in September that put him up 9 points, and POLITICO reported that the incumbent's operation dismisses the public polling entirely, which is more than a little politically convenient. Fitzpatrick has raised and spent far more in this race at nearly $5 million in the first six months of the year, against a late $900,000 commitment from the DCCC and more than $6 million reserved for television by House Majority PAC.

The nonpartisan view hasn't flipped. Cook Political Report moved PA-01 from Likely Republican to Lean Republican on Oct. 9, one rung on its seven-point scale, and Fitzpatrick is still favored. Whatever your views on the source and reliability of polls coming out now, there is reason to watch the undecideds closely in the coming weeks.

Source: POLITICO and the GSG memo, Oct. 10, 2026. Poll details from the memo: 1,032 likely voters, Oct. 1-8, margin of error 3.1 points. Fundraising and the Fitzpatrick internal from POLITICO. The PA-01 rating is Cook Political Report's Oct. 9 update.